Economic recovery opportunities coexist with challenges -the outlook of the world economic situation in 2024 (below)
级别: 超级版主
UID: 2
威望:35 精华: 141
主题:45 回复:1843
1#   发表于:2024-02-29 17:41:42

  On November 29,热点新闻 2023, customers were shopping in a shopping mall in St. Matto, California, USA.Photo by Li Jianguo (sent by Xinhua News Agency)

  The world economy in 2024 is full of opportunities and challenges.The growth points such as scientific and technological innovation, green economy and sustainable development, and digital transformation not only brought a broader development space for the world economy, but also provided a more sustainable growth path.At the same time, the world economy also faces many challenges and risks.Governments and enterprises of various countries need to strengthen cooperation and innovation, jointly cope with global challenges and problems, and promote the sustainable stability and prosperity of the world economy.

  Digital transformation

  Digital transformation has become an important force leading the development of the world economy. It not only has spawned new economic growth points, but also injects continuous and strong growth momentum into the world economy.

  In 2024, with the widespread application of 5G technology and the development of 6G technology, digital transformation will enter a new stage.Cutting -edge technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things will continue to develop in depth, which will deeply affect economic growth methods, and increase potential growth rate, productive forces, and promote industrial innovation.The widespread application of artificial intelligence in the manufacturing and service industry has significantly improved production efficiency.At the same time, big data and cloud computing provides enterprises with more accurate market insights and decision -making basis.The popularity of IoT technology has accelerated the development of smart homes and smart cities.These technological innovation not only optimize the production process and improve efficiency, but also expand the scope of products and services, thereby increasing consumer benefits.

  It should be noted that artificial intelligence may replace human labor, affect labor income and employment structure, and may affect the world economic structure due to scientific and technological differences between the country.

  The digital economy has put forward new challenges to global development.Digital gaps enable developing countries to face various challenges such as infrastructure, power, skills and education. It requires multi -party cooperation to promote the development advantage of developing countries and better integrate into the era of digital economy.

  Green low -carbon transformation

  The green economy and low -carbon transformed into a new vitality into the world economic development in 2024.The urgency of climate change makes the low -carbon economy a global consensus.Technological innovation played a key role in this process, and countries have increased research and development in the fields of renewable energy, energy -saving technology and other fields, promoted the popularization of clean energy and the development of innovative technologies such as smart grids and electric vehicles.Technical Support.At the institutional level, the government has strengthened environmental regulations and policies, such as providing green financial support to create a favorable market environment for low -carbon technology innovation.Industrial transformation is also continuously promoted, effectively reducing carbon emissions by optimizing the industrial structure, improving energy efficiency, and promoting clean energy.Emerging industries such as new energy, energy conservation and environmental protection have risen rapidly, injecting new vitality into economic growth.

  The international community needs to strengthen cooperation, increase support for developing countries, reduce trade barriers such as carbon tariffs, help developing countries overcome a large amount of investment in the implementation of low -carbon strategies, and technical and funding restrictions leading to itThe impact of adverse positions, jointly realize the global sustainable low -carbon development path.

  Economic periodic adjustment risk

  The world economy is in the process of cyclical adjustment.On the one hand, due to the long -term continuity of regional conflicts and the reshaping of the supply chain industry chain, the operating costs have increased, coupled with multiple factors such as high inflation and high interest rates, the world economy is full of complexity and uncertainty.On the other hand, the economic growth cycle is expected to enter the downward track from 2024, indicating that the speed of world economic growth will slow down.At the same time, the effect of the financial environment from loose to tightening will gradually appear, which will have a profound impact on the world economy and financial markets, and the trend of world economic growth will continue to differentiate.

  The adjustment of monetary policy in various countries will also have an important impact on the price of world economy and financial assets.The Fed may adjust interest rates when there is a problem in the financial market. The interest rate reduction space may be larger than the current display, but the adjustment time may be late, which may cause systemic risk of stable financial stability.The level of inflation has gradually fallen but still higher than the target level, while the economic signs of downside, monetary policy faces new challenges, and needs to be balanced between anti -inflation and stimulating economic growth.

  Global financial risks are significantly enhanced, mainly due to the continuous high level of inflation and differentiation of monetary policy.Inflation pressure forced some economies to take restrictive measures until inflation approached the target.The differentiation of monetary policy will exacerbate capital flow and market fluctuations.

  The rise in global interest rates has led to an increase in financing costs of emerging market countries and developing economies. Credit costs for households and enterprises have risen, debt repayment has increased, and mortgage loans and corporate bankruptcy have increased.The debt problems of these countries not only affect their economic stability and development, but also have a profound impact on the global financial market.Especially in emerging market countries with high level of government debt, rolling financing may face higher financing costs, increase financial burden, affect debt repayment and economic growth.

  Governments and international financial institutions need to strengthen policy coordination and cooperation, reduce the infectious and destructiveness of financial risks by strengthening financial supervision, establishing risk early warning and prevention mechanisms, and adopting appropriate monetary policies and fiscal policiesslow.

  Geopolitics and global governance challenges

  The situation of geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts are another major challenge facing the world economy.From "decoupling" to "risk", it may exacerbate the fragmentation of the world economy.Competition between large powers often involves many fields such as industrial chain, supply chain, and technological innovation. The consequences may lead to global market division, technological blockade, and even economic recession.These policies have forced enterprises to re -deploy the supply chain to deal with possible trade barriers and technical blockade.At the same time, regional conflicts may also have a huge impact on the world economy.

  The fragmentation of the world economy has limited global trade, cross -border capital flow, technology and personnel flow, and international payment.This fragmentation may lead to a significant decline in the global GDP's annual growth rate, which affects global prosperity.At the same time, the risk of inflation rises again cannot be ignored, especially the price of oil and natural gas may rise sharply due to regional conflicts.In addition, geopolitical conflicts also hinder multilateral cooperation, especially in key public products such as climate change and ensuring energy and food security.Multidirectionalism has been impacted, and international cooperation and coordination mechanisms have been weakened.In terms of financial markets, the damage to economic activities may lead to a sudden withdrawal of risk assets, which in turn has triggered a series of chain reactions such as the expansion of bond spreads and the decline in asset prices, exacerbating the instability of the financial market.

  Countries need to strengthen international cooperation, adhere to multilateralism, and respond to global challenges and problems by promoting the reform and improvement of the global governance system.

  Environment and climate challenge

  Natural disasters and climate changes have led to the increasing risk of extreme weather events, which has become increasingly significant on the world economy.Extreme weather incidents such as floods, droughts, and hurricanes are frequent and destructive. It has severely damaged natural resources such as agriculture, fisheries, and forestry, and threatened global food safety and sustainable development.It has an impact on infrastructure, transportation and energy supply, and increases the risk of economic operation.There are differences in the extent that different economic departments and countries are affected by extreme weather events, which may exacerbate global inequality.Poor countries are facing greater challenges when dealing with climate change.At the same time, extreme weather events have a magnifying effect on the economic impact. International trade and investment contact have enlarged the impact effect through global supply chain channels, especially on the manufacturing and tourism industry.

  Extreme weather incidents are expected to occur in 2024, and they may face challenges such as high temperature weather.The phenomenon of El Niopy may affect the harvest of various crops, push up global food prices, and has a short -term adverse effect on agricultural output in major agricultural production areas, such as Australia, New Zealand, Southeast Asia, South Africa, and some Latin American economies.

  Coping climate change requires global cooperation and investment adaptability construction to reduce economic losses and promote sustainable development.Countries around the world should work together to strengthen cooperation.