According to Taiwan media reports on July 25, the Sydney Post published an article entitled "Sino -US dangerous moment?"What is the risk of war by Chinese attention?"Comments article.The author said in the article that Trump's election campaign is becoming increasingly unfavorable, and the situation of the Taiwan Strait is getting more and more risky.And how long can Taiwan be supported once a war broke out?Tsai Ing -wen said in an interview with CNN last year, "We must have the ability to defend mainland China for 24 hours." This frank answer exposed a secret that could not be said -Taiwan defense could only support 24 hours.The content of the article is as follows:
The Taiwan Strait is greater than the South China Sea?
Will Trump "launch a war" for the election?Which of the most war risks of the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea?The author thinks it is the Taiwan Strait.
The biggest reason is that there are many countries around the South China Sea, and the consequences of the South China Sea War are that ASEAN will be dragged into Vietnam and other countries.The Chinese strategy of the South China Sea should continue to strengthen military forces, continuously increase the cost of war in the South China Sea war in the South China Sea, and constantly scare opponents to achieve the outbreak of the war and "soldiers who are not fighting."
The Taiwan Strait is different and there is no complex international peripheral relationship.Taiwan belongs to China territory. If it is not for their respective political calculations, few countries in the world will think that Taiwan does not belong to China.In the Taiwan Strait War, the U.S. military generally became unknown internationally (the "Taiwan Relations Law" is just the self -talk of the "famous" in the United States).There are also a handful of entry).Therefore, mainland China is involved in the Taiwan Strait War, and the international price paid is limited.
If the Taiwan Strait conflicts, the United States is unpalatable
In the second half of 2020, the Taiwan Strait suddenly jumped into a global high -risk area.This is because the situation of the US presidential election is very unfavorable to Trump. The latest polls show that the Democratic presidential candidate Biden's people have led Trump more than ten percentage points, which pose a major threat to Trump.But more importantly, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and other "Swing States" that laid Trump's victory in the last election of the last election have reversed. The Democratic Party has won more supporters. Of courseFalling into high anxiety.
Trump's election campaign is becoming increasingly unfavorable, and the situation of the Taiwan Straits has become more and more risky.The White House has a strong motivation. It is necessary to provoke a sensational conflict in the Taiwan Strait, thereby setting off the "unity of unity in the national" in the United States.This is also a typical operation in history. With external military conflicts, internal political crises are resolved.
The United States mobilizing military conflicts may not be as expected: if Trump lights up the war, it has evolved into a protracted fire in the Taiwan Strait conflict, and even out of control, then the anti -war sound of the United States will soar and eventually cause the Trump administration to collapse.The example of the Vietnam War left a deep mark on the collective heart of the United States.
Both China and the United States are nuclear powers. Once the war is fully war, it will not be just a small trouble, but there will be a violent movement of the power sector.Beijing will definitely use this to solve the problem of Taiwan.Whether the troops and young people in the Taiwan region have the determination to decide the death battle is just wishful thinking.
Can Taiwan look forward to timely rescue in the United States?
According to the long -term infer of international military experts, Beijing will use the beheading war to attack its unprepared before it has logged in large -scale. Whether the defenders in Taiwan can carry the pressure to block the first wave of offensives of the PLA, wait for the US military to rescue and reverse the war situation.It is still unknown, and whether the U.S. military can continue to reinforce in the Taiwan Strait will also be a major variable.
However, it is certain that if the United States is provocative in the Taiwan Strait military, it will stimulate Beijing to borrow the situation and win more legitimacy.This is a variable that Trump needs to consider when launching a war.
So, what else do you think of the Taiwan Strait War by himself?
In February last year, Tsai Ing -wen was interviewed by CNN. The reporter asked, if there was a war on both sides of the strait, "Will you expect the US military to participate in the war?" She replied, "We must have the ability to defend China (mainland) for 24 hours."Later, you must rely on "international assistance".This frank answer exposes a secret that cannot be said -Taiwan defense can only support 24 hours.
Tsai Ing -wen avoided the sensitive issue of whether the United States participated in the war. "How long can Taiwan be able to support it" has always been Taiwan's own standard question. The answers are different. Some say for a few days, and some clearly give the answers to two weeks.
Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe, who "visited the United States" last March, said that he went to the US Department of Defense. The United States told him that "Taiwan must be supported at least two days, and traditional war must be supported for at least two days before the United States has a way.""Taiwan can block the first wave, it is difficult to block two or three waves." Cai Disheng, former "National Security Director" of the Taiwan authorities, publicly stated that when he was "visiting the United States", the United States had told him that the United States would enter the first or second island.Chain is getting more and more difficult.
Can you only "take a broom" to fight with the PLA?
Su Qi, the former "Secretary -General of the National Security Council" of the Taiwan authorities, said that U.S. aircraft carriers could not help Taiwan day and night stands for a long time.In the light and stone fire, the number is small and far away, and the opportunity for the US military to rescue is slim.
The well -known scholar who often played the "whistle" stated that in the recent draft of the "Taiwan Defense Law" proposed by the American Senate, the security password for Taiwan was actually hidden- "the facts".The idea is that Beijing has been able to quickly lead to the factual facts in the Taiwan Strait, making it difficult for the United States to flip politically or military.
The author also wrote many years ago that the PLA should resolve Taiwan overnight. The people of Taiwan woke up the next day, and the streets were already easy.The author believes that the PLA battle is in an hour.