Original title: Gold price increased by more than 15%in 2023!Gold price in 2024 or exceeded $ 2,200 [Supply and demand of global gold market]
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Yicai.com News,Gold was like a rainbow in 2023, and has increased by more than 15% since the beginning of the yearIt has set a record high twice, which is unexpected in the background of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike.As the gold of non -interest -interest assets, the interest rate of up to 5.5%of the US dollars can still maintain strong, which is mainly promoted by huge diversified allocation.
FAWAD RAZAQZADA, a senior analyst at Jiasheng Group, said that he experienced two years of consolidation after the epidemic,The price of gold hit a record high twice in 2023: once in May, and the other in DecemberThe gold price tried to throw away the key resistance level of $ 2,000, and it had been sold many times in this resistance.At present, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates three times in 2024, and the price of gold is higher than this point.Learn fromFor favorable macro backgrounds and more technical indicators, the price price will be set in 2024.
Laza Dada said that gold was supported by factors such as inflation and expected interest reduction expectations in 2023.These factors will continue to affect gold in early 2024.Therefore, we expect that 2024 will be a strong year.The target we set for gold in 2024 is $ 2,200 and $ 2,360.
—— Global gold production situation
Gold is a special precious metal with dual attributes of goods and finance.Although the Bretton Forest system collapsed, the golden standard system officially withdrawn from the historical stage, but due to the value attributes of gold and its scarcity, it still determines its important position.From the perspective of gold supply, there are basically gold mining businesses around the world. According to data from the World Gold Association, global gold production increased before 2015 to 2020, and then declined. In 2018, the output was 3509.3 tons, reaching the highest value in recent years.Subsequently, the global gold production in 2020 was only 3359 tons. In 2021, global mineral gold recovered a slightly recovery by 2%compared with 2020.
—— Global gold consumption situation
From the perspective of global gold consumption demand, the number of global gold consumption has fluctuated, and the overall floating around 4,000 tons.Affected by the epidemic in 2020, the global gold consumption demand throughout the year fell sharply to 3759.6 tons, the lowest value in recent years.In 2021, it has recovered, and global gold consumption is 4021 tons.
—— Gold price trend
From the perspective of the price trend of gold, from 2017 to the first half of 2020, global gold prices fluctuated, and in July 2020 reached a high of 2,000 US dollars/ounce.From 2021 to 2023, the global gold price was high, and it was $ 2045.4/ounce in December 2023.
The World Gold Association said,The central bank interviewed by the central bank predicts that global gold reserves will increase in the next 12 months.The global central bank's purchase volume in 2022 reached 1136 tons, a record high, and the trend was still continuing in 2023.Recent,Goldman Sachs raised its golden price target for the next 3 months, 6 months and 12 months to $ 2065, $ 2125 and $ 2175 per ounce.
CITIC Securities Chief Economist clearly believes that the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate cut is expected to bring rapid improvement in the actual interest rate of the United States. The financial attributes of gold determine that gold is expected to benefit from it.The risk of deterioration in the United States may strengthen the value -shelter value of gold.In addition, 2024 is the "Super Election Year"The global geopolitical situation is facing great uncertainty.If the local geopolitical situation is heating up again, it may further suppress investor risk preferences, which is also expected to boost the price of gold.Under the influence of financial attributes and risk aversion emotions, it is expected that gold prices are expected to usher in fluctuations in 2024.
Note: This article only makes content dissemination, which does not constitute any investment advice!
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