Everything has risen, and the world will look at China
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1#   发表于:2024-02-16 07:41:46

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| Global stock market is starting the "Santa Santa Rap" -the Fedee seems to be bullied.The global market continues to go out of the model of "US dollar falling, everything has risen" on Tuesday: -D. The US dollar index fell below the 102 level and continued to struggle against most major currencies;-The U.S. Treasury bonds rose, and the 10-year Treasury yield fell 0.8 basis points to 3.9238%;US crude oil rose 1.5%to close near $ 74 per barrel and touched a two -week high.The frequent attack of the Red Sea Merchants has triggered shipping concerns, but it is difficult to judge how long this rise will last.The market continues to decide with reality, and the fundamental information corresponding to its trend is exactly the opposite: 1. Fed officials try to lower the expectations of a sharp rate cut in early 2024.-Autram Chairman Bostek said that there was no urgency to cut interest rates in early 2024, and the Fed must be firm and patient on the next step of policy actions.As the inflation rate continues to move towards the target of 2%, it may begin to reduce interest rates to avoid damage to the labor market.-If the recent progress in anti -inflation, the Fed will cut interest rates, but I think inflation is stubborn than what the average person thinks.The two continued to spill cold water at the market, but the market had almost no response, and the interest rate cut rose to 75%in March.very

| |Global stock market is starting the "Santa Claus Race"

——This Federal Reserve seems willing to be bullied.

The global market continues to go out of the model of "US dollar falling, everything has risen" on Tuesday:

-D. The dollar index fell below 102, and the majority of major currencies continued to struggle;

-The gold price rose more than $ 20 from a low position, and traders' motivation for selling gold was reduced;

-The U.S. Treasury bonds rose, and the 10 -year Treasury yield fell 0.8 basis points to 3.9238%;

-The U.S. stock market has risen by 0.68%, the S & P 500 index rose 0.59%, the Nasdaq index rose 0.66%;

-A US crude oil rose 1.5%to close near $ 74 per barrel and touched a two -week high.The frequent attack of the Red Sea Merchants has triggered shipping concerns, but it is difficult to judge how long this rise will last.

The market continues to decide with reality, and the fundamental information corresponding to its trend is exactly the opposite:

1. Fed officials try to lower the expectations of a sharp interest rate cut in early 2024.

-Autram Chairman Bostek said that there was no urgency to cut interest rates in early 2024, and the Fed must be firm and patient on the next step of policy actions.As the inflation rate continues to move towards the target of 2%, it may begin to reduce interest rates to avoid damage to the labor market.

-If the recent progress in anti -inflation, the Fed will cut interest rates, but I think inflation is stubborn than what the average person thinks.

The two continued to spill cold water at the market, but the market had almost no response, and the interest rate cut rose to 75%in March.Many people think that there is a problem with the communication between the Federal Reserve and the market, so this will occur, but this may not be the case -the Fed's strategy has changed.If the Fed is really expected to counterattack the market's interest rate cuts, then they should not discuss related details. They only need to uniformly uniformly say that "the discussion at the time is too early to discuss interest rate cuts now."On the other hand, the Federal Reserve has eagle, pigeons, and intermediates, which is to allow the market to naturally transition to interest rate cuts.What people generally see is that interest rates have been topped, and the next step will be reduced at some time in 2024.

2. The announced economic data continued to be strong, but the dollar was still selling.

-In November, the new house in the United States accidentally rose by 14.8%, and economists were previously expected to decrease by 0.90%. It can be said that this data is surprisingly good.

-Ateland Greater Federal Reserve's fourth quarter GDPNOW forecast jumped to 2.7%.

In the past, this is definitely a data that triggered a sharp rise in the dollar.Now not just the speech of the Federal Reserve officials can not work, but even the impact of economic data on the market has failed.

3. Behind the current market trend, retail investors are big buyers, and their purchase speed is the fastest in 18 months.In contrast, Wall Street professionals should be a little cautious, and the market has no meaning at the current level.Economic data has lost its meaning, the Fed's speech has lost its meaning. To be precise, it is now out of control.But who dares to short when the market is singing?This is just as when it is a "fell pointed knife" when it falls.It can only be adjusted by the market itself -what can prevent irrational rising can only be a higher price.