In this 热门事件world of multi -pole development, a hundred -year -old change is quietly formed, and the international pattern is about to go through a large shuffle.According to a report released by the British Economic and Commercial Research Center, it is expected that by 2025, the ranking of the top five in the world's top five may undergo unexpected changes. Some emerging dark horses are expected to emerge.return.What deep information behind this huge change?
India, the biggest dark horse rise
As we all know, India has been regarded as a poverty, dirty, and backward population country, but this impression may be flipped in the future.According to the GDP data statistics from the International Monetary Organization (IMF), India has surpassed Britain in 2022 and becomes the fifth largest economy in the world.What is even more surprising is that India's GDP growth rate still maintains a high level of more than 7%, which indicates that its future economic ranking may rise.Why can India rise so rapidly?There are two main reasons: First, as a large country with a population of 1.4 billion, India has a large number of cheap labor and achieves rapid economic development by attracting labor -intensive industries from other countries; second, India has been criticized earlier earlier.The surname system is gradually diluing, and the status between people is more equal, which undoubtedly releases huge market vitality.According to research by the British Economic and Commercial Research Center, India is expected to surpass Germany around 2025, because the GDP gap between the two sides has narrowed to $ 1 trillion, and India's GDP growth rate is much higher than Germany.If the Indian government can effectively use its 30 -year -old population dividends, India is even expected to challenge the position of the top three economies in the world.
Germany, the old -fashioned industrial power is facing bottlenecks
As an old European industry power, Germany has long been known as the "EU locomotive" and shows its leading position in the European economy.However, with the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, Germany's development prospects are full of uncertainties, such as the sharp rise in energy costs and the crazy escape from domestic capital.In this case, Germany is likely to be difficult to keep the status of the current fourth largest economy in the world.The dilemma currently facing Germany is mainly due to its lack of independence in politics and can only blindly follow the US policy.After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the United States demanded that Germany and other EU countries cut off all economic cooperation with Russia, which led Germany to lose Russia's cheap energy sources, which is very fatal for a large industrial country.At present, Germany's GDP growth rate is only about 1.8%. In the future, it has been surpassed by India to almost become a matter of nailing.
Japan, get out of the economic stagnation
As the first developed country in Asia, Japan has long maintained the position of the top three economies for a long time, and has put some pressure on the United States during the peak of the 1980s.However, with the crushing of the Japanese bubble economy in the 1990s, Japan has entered a period of over 30 years of economic stagnation, and GDP growth has maintained a low level of about 1%all year round.However, the recent Japanese economy seems to be expected to get out of this "lost 30 years".According to a report from the British Economic and Commercial Research Center, since 2023, Japan ’s GDP has maintained a growth rate of 6%in three consecutive quarters. At the same time, the Japanese stock market has increased by 22%in 2023, a record high.These data show that the Japanese economy is gradually entering the recovery track.There are three main reasons for the Japanese economy to inject strong heart agents: first, the Russian and Ukraine War led to a large number of European capital fled, and some capital flowed into Japan brought new vitality; second, the CPTPP ring Pacific Trade Agreement that the United States has recently established recently has increased the allies between the alliesEconomic exchanges; Third, in the context of Sino -US confrontation, Japan has re -valued the US government and relaxed its economic curb on Japan.These factors are expected to get rid of the long -term stagnation state.
The United States, loses the top economy
For a century, the United States has been in the top of the world's GDP. However, with the continuous enhancement of the competitiveness of emerging economies such as China, the number of global economies in the United States seems to be unsuccessful.According to the forecast of the British Economic and Commercial Research Center, the US GDP output value may be overtaken by China in the future.This is not alarmist.At present, emerging countries such as China are vigorously promoting the "de -US dollar" while continuously selling US debt in their hands, leading to the rapid decline in US dollar credit and US national reputation.According to the Wall Street Journal, since the beginning of 2023, the US debt index fell from 97.2 to 45.0, a record lowest, with a depreciation of more than 50%.The dislike of the world's worldwide hegemony has gradually heated up, and people are urgent to build a more fair and open international financial system, rather than a "one word" dominated by the United States.According to this trend, the possibility of the collapse of the US dollar hegemony will become more realistic in the next few years.
China, rise into the largest economy
At the time of the global landscape of "east -rising and west", China ushered in a golden period of development strategy.Compared with other countries, China has stronger political independence, and its development is not limited and restrained by other countries.Coupled with the tradition of promoting hard work in the Chinese cultural circle, China's market development has shown more vigorous vitality than Western countries.According to data from the British Economic and Commercial Research Center, China's current GDP growth rate has remained above 5%, and the output value of GDP has reached 70%of the United States.As long as China can successfully promote the internationalization of RMB and global de -USDization, China's replacement of the United States as the world's largest economy will become inevitable.